Snow Looking More Likely

February 10, 2010

First things first.  I still give this storm a 40% chance of breaking the hearts of all Alexandria snow lovers.  The morning models came in colder and wetter, which bodes well for our chances of snow.  This puts our warmer models in line with the colder ones, but still leaves plenty of room for a bust on this forecast. 

The quick and dirty of it, is that someone along and 30 miles north or south of a Many to Dry Prong to Jena to Natchez, MS line could see up to 6 inches of snow.  If our ground was frozen, I think someone could see up to ten inches!  Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your take) we don’t have frozen ground.  Still, six inches of snow would be as much as some areas have seen around here since the early 1960s! 

If you’d like to look at the model output from this morning, feast your eyes on this.  http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=SHV  You can follow the legend at the bottom to see that up to 8 inches of snow is forecast by this model from Natchitoches toward Natchez, MS.  I don’t think we’ll quite make it that high with respect to accumulations due to some melting from the bottom up.  That’s because of our warm ground.  The snow will literally be eaten from below.  However, there should be plenty to play in over at least a portion of Central Louisiana.

I’ll post more thoughts tonight, but right now, if I had to forecast for Alexandria, I’d go with 0-4 inches of snow from 6:00 P.M Thursday to 6:00 A.M Friday.  I’d leave zero in the range due to the inherent uncertanties of the models.  If this morning’s models verify, we could be much closer to the higher end.  It’s still too early to call, but should come into much better focus tonight.  Be ready for big snow, but don’t get the kiddos too excited yet.  There still is a significant bust factor here.  If the atmosphere ends up 1-2 degrees warmer, we get nothing.  If it ends up where it’s currently forecast or a couple degrees colder, we call Aunt Ethel in Pittsburgh and ask if she can overnight a snow shovel.  This will be a fun one to watch! 

One more thing, if you are south of Alexandria, your chances of seeing a lot of snow drop pretty quickly.  I’d say the farthest south the threat for accumulation is would be along a DeRidder to Oakdale to Simmesport line.

More later………

Nick

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