Glad I’m Not On T.V!

February 10, 2010

This is an amazingly tough snow/non-snow event to forecast. This is the kind of event that can reallllllllllly make a perfectly good meteorologist look like they don’t know what they are talking about. The temperature through the lowest ten thousand feet of the atmosphere will essentially be the same. This is called an “isothermal layer”. Iso means same, and thermal means temperature for our purposes here. This literally means that a few tenths of a degree could mean the difference between rain and snow! In this case, this could be the difference between an inch of rain, and 6 inches of snow for someone!

The models kind of switched camps today. My most reliable model has switched to the heavy snow camp, while the last couple runs of another fairly reliable model has pulled further south with the energy. This caused a slightly warmer thermal profile, meaning a mish mosh of precipitation types, and lighter amounts. If the snow models verify, someone will need a shovel in our area, and if the not so snow models verify, we’ll be looking at a mix of precipitation types, and not much accumulation. I’ll keep with my more reliable model for now as it has some support from other models. I won’t get terribly far into any details yet, as they just aren’t coming into complete focus. I could really look like a liar if I started spouting out definitive snow amounts right now. I will say that 4+ inches of snow is possible either in Alexandria, or near Alexandria. I think the home run zone for the highest possibilities of heavy snow is close by. I’ll have an update tomorrow as this storm is of personal interest to me. I’m flying out of Shreveport Friday morning! Could be a pretty long wait to get out if this storm moves a few miles further north!

Nick

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