Big Cold? Winter Weather?

December 31, 2009

My opinion of long range forecasting has never been terribly favorable. Being on TV, I realized people didn’t want a bunch of maybes and what ifs. That’s another bonus to being off air, and just kind of having fun with the weather. Our long range forecast is interesting to say the least, especially in the 6-12 day range. Model guidance is very bullish on bringing intense cold air down over the snowpacked northern U.S. These models we use as guidance bring below zero temperatures all the way down to Dallas! This same model also brings us down to 9 degrees next Saturday morning! The good thing is, these models are often overblown in their long range solutions, though they are generally good at latching on to a pattern in that time frame.

Now for the semi-details. Some models are hinting at a potential winter weather event next Wednesday and Thursday. The overnight run of the GFS produced almost 7/10 of an inch of liquid equivalent through an airmass that will be near or below freezing for the duration of the event. My most reliable model is a good bit drier with this event, but the large scale pattern will at least leave this as a time of interest for the deep south.

Potential system number two would be sometime around next weekend or early the week after. No details there yet, but an interesting set up could unfold. Remember, we are taking the general pattern trends here, and not specifics from the model data. There will be lots of flip flopping in the coming days. Thankfully I’ll be back from St. Louis by the time all this potential fun begins! I’ll post a full update either late tomorrow or early Saturday.


Happy New Year!


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