First Freeze

November 30, 2009

It looks like Friday morning could be our first freeze of the year. Beyond that, things look to stay quite cold over the weekend. If we get another round of model runs like this morning, I may have something much more exciting to talk about. Right now, this one run is out of whack (in some ways) with what the models have been forecasting. I’ll keep you posted.

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Cold Air Still Coming

November 26, 2009

It’s just a slow process! It always seems like the models signal these things for a week or two before they actually happen. Things are getting closer finally. It looks like a significant chunk of Arctic air will head this way late next week or next weekend. My preliminary guess would be that we would see widespread 20s in Louisiana. Again, it’s way too tough to call if there will be moisture available to make the kiddos (and me) happy. I’m watching that like a hawk.

Apart from future cold, the near term presents its own issues. Through Sunday things look great. After that, Monday and Tuesday look very wet. 1-3 inches of rain seems likely at this point, and there could be some totals that exceed that. In fact, the entire weather pattern appears to be shifting toward a more active time as December rolls in. Remember, it was one year ago on December 10 that we saw snow around a good part of Central Louisiana. Here’s hoping we do it again!

Oh, one more thing. There could be some patchy frost tonight. Lows will be in the mid 30s area wide, with some folks possibly touching 32. The plants should be just fine for now, though if you’re into totally minimizing all risk, there is like a 2% chance we’ll see temperatures totally bottom out to around 30. Happy Thanksgiving! Have fun, and watch some football! Actually looking at this slate of games, I don’t know how much football you actually should see.

Blog Update

November 24, 2009

When I started this blog I think I envisioned something a bit different than what it has become. I’m changing the format! Basically what I’ll be doing is blogging more intensely about big events, while abandoning my daily forecasts. You can get those daily forecasts from a number of different outlets, and in most cases they won’t be terribly different. So welcome to the new blog!

First things first…….. It looks like a major pattern change is on the way as December approaches. It looks like a big cooldown with a very active southern branch of the jet stream. That probably means a lot of cold rain in these parts, though this is the type of set up that could bring snow or ice close to our area. There is NOTHING indicating this is GOING to happen yet. The first step is getting the pattern to line up for an event like that, and it looks like we are headed that way. The devil is in the details and that is still much too far away to “get cute” with. I’ll most definitely keep you posted as snow is absolutely my thing.

If you know me, you know that active weather is what I live for. Well, what I live for weatherwise. I take little “weather joy” out of a 70 degree sunny day. Give me cloudy/windy/snowy/rain/stormy/sleety or whatever else you’d like. Sure I like the occasional sunny day thrown in just for kicks, but to me nothing beats a four day stretch of 50 mph wind, heavy rain, and an eventual changeover to heavy snow. With that being said, it’s only going to rain a little this go round. At least it’s something different!

Friday: Increasing clouds with a slight chance for a shower late. Highs will be in the lower 60s with northeasterly wind around 5-15 mph.

Friday Night: There is a 70% chance for rain. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Occasional rain will continue through mid-afternoon. Highs will be in the middle 50s.

Saturday Night: Decreasing clouds with lows in the middle 40s.

Sunday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.

Monday through Thursday: Mostly dry throughout the extended period. There is a small chance for a shower or two as a front rolls through on Wednesday, but there shouldn’t be much to that. Highs will fall from near 70 on Monday to the lower to middle 60s the rest of the week. Lows will generally run from around 45-50 Monday and Tuesday morning, and will fall back to the lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

Changes on the Way

November 19, 2009

It looks like some rain will fall across the area. Most of this will be on Saturday, though changes will start to happen weatherwise early on Friday.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and mild. Highs will be near 70 with southeasterly wind around 5-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy and cool. Lows will be in the middle 40s.

Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs will be in the upper 60s.

Friday Night: Scattered rain showers should develop toward morning. The rain chance will increase to 40% toward morning. Lows will be near 50.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance for rain. Highs will be near 60.

Sunday through Wednesday: Rain chances will be fairly low throughout the forceast. A cold front will move this way by Wednesday but moisture will be limited. I’ll put a 20% chance for rain in with the frontal passage on Wednesday. At this point that doesn’t look like a big deal. Highs will be in the 68-74 degree range each day. Lows will run from the middle 40s to near 50. All in all, things are looking pretty good!

More of the Same

November 18, 2009

Over the next few days, only minor changes will appear in the forecast. There will be some rain over the weekend, but at this point it doesn’t look like a huge deal.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs will be in the lower 60s with southwesterly wind around 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear and chilly. Lows will be in the upper 30s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and a little warmer. Highs will be near 70.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cool. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a high near 70.

Saturday through Tuesday: There is a 60% chance for rain on Saturday. Right now it looks like most of us will see less than an inch from that system. The next round of rain will be around Tuesday of next week. I’ll put a 30% chance for rain in on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 50s Saturday, but will rebound to the upper 60s and lower 70s for the rest of the extended forecast. Lows will be within a couple degrees of 50 each night.

Nick

Autumn Takes Hold

November 17, 2009

Finally a nice shot of cool air has made it’s presence felt across the deep south. Look for chilly air to make off and on appearances over the next 7-10 days.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cool. Highs will be in the upper 50s with northwesterly wind around 10-20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and quite chilly. Lows will be in the upper 30s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and a little warmer. Highs will be in the middle 60s.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear and cool once again. Lows will be in the upper 30s.

Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs will be near 70.

Friday through Monday: There is a 30% chance for rain late Friday, and a 50% chance for rain on Saturday. Rain should clear out for Sunday and Monday. Highs will fall back to near 60 for Friday and Saturday, but will bounce back to near 70 for Sunday and Monday. Lows will be in the middle 40s throughout the period. Enjoy the cooldown if that’s your thing!

Nick

A Brief Shot Of Rain Today

November 16, 2009

Not terribly much to talk about today. There will be some rain, and a decent little cooldown across the area. Here are the details.

Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance for rain and a few thunderstorms before 3:00 P.M. Highs will be near 70 with temperatures falling into the 50s by 5:00 P.M. Wind will shift to the northwest at 10-20 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy and chilly. Lows will be near 40.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and cool. Highs will be near 60.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Lows will be in the upper 30s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. Highs will be in the middle 60s.

Thursday through Sunday: I’ll put a 30% chance for some showers in on Friday and Sunday. These storms don’t look huge, but could provide us with some clouds and a bit of rain. Highs will run between the upper 60s and middle 70s each day. Lows will warm from the lower 40s to the lower 50s by the end of the period.

Have a great week!

Nick

A Tricky Forecast

November 14, 2009

These are the days I’m glad I’m just having fun on a blog. The forecast for next week is tough to say the least. A large upper level vortex will be spinning to our north. The main question is where exactly will this beast sit and spin. A difference of a couple hundred miles (not much in the meteorology realm) could be the difference between off and on rain, and cool dry conditions. I’ll break it down as best I can.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s with southerly wind around 5-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and mild. Lows will be in the middle to upper 50s.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.

Sunday Night: Cloudy and a bit more humid. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday: Right now I’ll lean a bit more toward a drier forecast. I’ll keep a 40% chance for rain in Tuesday, but lower that chance to 20% for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s each day, with lows in the 45-50 degree range.

This forecast has a fairly low degree of confidence beyond Monday. Stay tuned for updates!

What a Weekend!

November 13, 2009

Wonderful weekend weather is on the way, followed by some rain and cooler temperatures early next week.

Friday: Mostly sunny and nice once again. Highs will be in the lower 70s with southerly wind around 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear and cool. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs will be near 80.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. Lows will be near 60.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and a bit more humid. Highs will be near 80.

Monday through Thursday: Rain and thunderstorms are likely late Monday into Monday night with light rain and drizzle possible through early Tuesday. Rain chances are at 70% Monday, and 40% Tuesday. A drying trend will occur through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be in the middle 70s on Monday, with lower to middle 60s through Thursday. Lows will be near 60 on Monday, in the upper 40s on Tuesday, and the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday. Finally some cooler air!