Two More Days Of This

October 29, 2009

The rain is here to stay for almost two more full days. After which we will see a stretch of insanely gorgeous weather. Prior to that things look absolutely nasty, with flooding rains and severe weather, both distinct possibilities.

Thursday: Scattered rain and thunderstorms will become widespread throughout the day. Highs will approach 80, and any sunshine will help fuel our potentially severe thunderstorms. The wind will be from the southeast at 15-30 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday Night: Off and on rain and thunderstorms will continue, with heavy rain and severe weather likely. Lows will be near 70.

Friday: Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue with a more continuous rain likely through the afternoon. The severe threat will end very early in the day. Highs will be near 70 in the morning, with temperatures falling to the middle 50s late in the day.

Friday Night: Rain will end around or just after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Decreasing clouds and much nicer! Highs will be in the upper 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Perfect weather! Lows will be in the middle to upper 40s with highs in the lower 70s each day.

Significant Weather Outlook: Things look *slightly* less ominous than they did yesterday at this time. The severe threat is still the same, but it looks a little more likely that the worst of the flooding rain will set up just west of us. We are still looking at widespread 2-5 inch rain totals around Alexandria, with isolated totals as high as 8 inches. There’s still the threat that the worst of this storm will set up overhead, but my gut (and the models) suggest that the heaviest rain will stretch from Shreveport to Many to extreme southeast Texas. That is where 4-8 inches of rain will fall with some totals reaching or exceeding 12 inches.

Our severe threat will be greatest today and tonight. The greatest threat will be damaging wind, with 55 – 65 mph winds just a couple of thousand feet off the surface. This will easily mix down in stronger storms. Also, with turning winds in the low levels, a few tornadoes will be possible. Remember, the ground is saturated. It won’t take much wind to uproot trees, especially those with shallow root systems.

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