Huge Rains On The Way

October 28, 2009

I’m just going to focus on this huge rain even/severe weather event that is on tap from late Wednesday night through Saturday morning. I’ll break things down in forecast language, and then let you know specifics at the end.

Wednesday: Dense fog early followed by partly sunny skies. Look for clouds to increase once again late in the day. Highs will be near 80 with southeasterly wind around 8-16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Scattered rain and thunderstorms will develop after midnight. A few storms could be severe. Lows will be near 70 with temperatures rising to near 75 after midnight. The rain chance is 70%.

Thursday: Periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some rain will be heavy, and some storms will be severe. Highs will be in the lower 80s with southeasterly wind around 15-30 mph.

Thursday Night: Heavy rain and thunderstorms is likely. Lows will be near 70. Some storms could be severe.

Friday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms remain likely. Severe storms are possible early. Highs will be in the upper 60s early with falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Cooler with steady moderate to heavy rain. Lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Saturday: Rain will end early with highs only reachin the lower to middle 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Dry! Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

Significant Weather Outlook: Flooding will become a very real threat Thursday through Saturday. In Alexandria, expect (conservatively) 3-6 inches of rain through the period. There will be a swath of ten or more inches of rain with this system somewhere nearby, and possibly right overhead. Right now, I think the absolute worst of the rain will stay just a tiny bit west of town, but it’s too close for comfort. Regardless of where this axis of heaviest rain lies, we will see a significant flooding threat. If you are prone to flooding where you live, be ready.

Severe weather is also a threat. From late Wednesday night to Friday morning conditions will be favorable for some severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threat due to very strong wind throughout the atmosphere. This is going to be one heck of a storm to follow. I’ll probably update things tonight as new model data comes in.

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One Response to “Huge Rains On The Way”

  1. Melissa H said

    Tks Nick!

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