A Semi-Dodged Bullet

October 30, 2009

While 5-8 inches of rain has been widespread from Leesville through Shreveport, it appears we have escaped the worst of this system. It really kind of panned out the way it looked it might yesterday. The heaviest rain has been just west of Alexandria, but is finally shifting in from the west. I’m expecting a bit of a reprieve here, with 1-3 inches of rain likely, with isolated totals up to 5 inches. That’s no picnic, but better than the eight plus inches some areas have seen.

Friday: Rain with a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will fall to the lower to middle 50s this afternoon.

Friday Night: Rain will end early. Lows will be in the middle to upper 40s.

Saturday: Patchy low clouds and fog early with mostly sunny skies late. Highs will be near 70.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear with patchy fog after midnight. Lows will be in the middle 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and quite nice. Highs will be in the lower 70s.

Monday through Thursday: Partly sunny and dry throughout the period. Highs will range from 70-75, with lows in the 45-50 degree range. Great weather indeed!

Two More Days Of This

October 29, 2009

The rain is here to stay for almost two more full days. After which we will see a stretch of insanely gorgeous weather. Prior to that things look absolutely nasty, with flooding rains and severe weather, both distinct possibilities.

Thursday: Scattered rain and thunderstorms will become widespread throughout the day. Highs will approach 80, and any sunshine will help fuel our potentially severe thunderstorms. The wind will be from the southeast at 15-30 mph with higher gusts.

Thursday Night: Off and on rain and thunderstorms will continue, with heavy rain and severe weather likely. Lows will be near 70.

Friday: Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue with a more continuous rain likely through the afternoon. The severe threat will end very early in the day. Highs will be near 70 in the morning, with temperatures falling to the middle 50s late in the day.

Friday Night: Rain will end around or just after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Saturday: Decreasing clouds and much nicer! Highs will be in the upper 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Perfect weather! Lows will be in the middle to upper 40s with highs in the lower 70s each day.

Significant Weather Outlook: Things look *slightly* less ominous than they did yesterday at this time. The severe threat is still the same, but it looks a little more likely that the worst of the flooding rain will set up just west of us. We are still looking at widespread 2-5 inch rain totals around Alexandria, with isolated totals as high as 8 inches. There’s still the threat that the worst of this storm will set up overhead, but my gut (and the models) suggest that the heaviest rain will stretch from Shreveport to Many to extreme southeast Texas. That is where 4-8 inches of rain will fall with some totals reaching or exceeding 12 inches.

Our severe threat will be greatest today and tonight. The greatest threat will be damaging wind, with 55 – 65 mph winds just a couple of thousand feet off the surface. This will easily mix down in stronger storms. Also, with turning winds in the low levels, a few tornadoes will be possible. Remember, the ground is saturated. It won’t take much wind to uproot trees, especially those with shallow root systems.

Huge Rains On The Way

October 28, 2009

I’m just going to focus on this huge rain even/severe weather event that is on tap from late Wednesday night through Saturday morning. I’ll break things down in forecast language, and then let you know specifics at the end.

Wednesday: Dense fog early followed by partly sunny skies. Look for clouds to increase once again late in the day. Highs will be near 80 with southeasterly wind around 8-16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Scattered rain and thunderstorms will develop after midnight. A few storms could be severe. Lows will be near 70 with temperatures rising to near 75 after midnight. The rain chance is 70%.

Thursday: Periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some rain will be heavy, and some storms will be severe. Highs will be in the lower 80s with southeasterly wind around 15-30 mph.

Thursday Night: Heavy rain and thunderstorms is likely. Lows will be near 70. Some storms could be severe.

Friday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms remain likely. Severe storms are possible early. Highs will be in the upper 60s early with falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Cooler with steady moderate to heavy rain. Lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Saturday: Rain will end early with highs only reachin the lower to middle 60s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Dry! Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

Significant Weather Outlook: Flooding will become a very real threat Thursday through Saturday. In Alexandria, expect (conservatively) 3-6 inches of rain through the period. There will be a swath of ten or more inches of rain with this system somewhere nearby, and possibly right overhead. Right now, I think the absolute worst of the rain will stay just a tiny bit west of town, but it’s too close for comfort. Regardless of where this axis of heaviest rain lies, we will see a significant flooding threat. If you are prone to flooding where you live, be ready.

Severe weather is also a threat. From late Wednesday night to Friday morning conditions will be favorable for some severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threat due to very strong wind throughout the atmosphere. This is going to be one heck of a storm to follow. I’ll probably update things tonight as new model data comes in.

No Rest For The Wet

October 27, 2009

This is pure insanity! Will it ever stop raining? Even a trip 700 miles north couldn’t get me out of the rain! It looks like a short break is on tap, and I mean very short. Beyond that, a very strong storm system complete with severe weather and silly heavy rain lurks in our near future. The not so fun details………… are right here.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with drizzle and light rain through early afternoon. Then a few peeks of sun may show up. Highs will be in the middle 60s with northwesterly wind around 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy early with dense fog developing after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Wednesday: Patchy dense fog early with partial clearing by afternoon. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s.

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds with rain chances increasing to 70% after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s late in the evening with temperatures rising to the middle 70s by morning. Heavy rain is possible.

Thursday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible through the day. Highs will be near 80 with gusty southeasterly wind. A few storms could be severe with heavy rain being the most pressing threat (for now). If it we end up with a bit more instability there could be some fairly widespread severe weather.

Thursday Night: Rain and thunderstorms will continue with heavy rain and severe weather possible. Lows will be near 70.

Friday: Rain will end in the afternoon with 2-5 inches likely for the whole storm. Isolated places could exceed ten inches as this system will be a slow mover. Temperatures will fall to around 60 by Friday afternoon as the cold front rolls through.

Saturday and Sunday: Clearing and finally dry! Highs will be in the middle 70s with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

Significant Weather Statement: I’ve hit on this above, but with so much water already in place across the area, flooding will be likely with our late week rain. The way this system will set up, someone will end up with a prolonged period of heavy rain and potential severe weather. Right now the highest threat for excessive rain appears to be along and west of a Monroe to Alexandria to Sulphur line. Models are quite consistent in painting average rain totals in the 4-8 inch range along and west of that line. Severe weather parameters look significant as well, and if we see any instability with this system the possibility will be there for damaging wind and a few tornadoes. Whew. Lots to digest in this forecast. I’ll update you tomorrow on this situation. It’s going to be a big one!

Insanity!

October 26, 2009

Sorry for the delay! I have been in St. Louis for the past several days. I’m leaving in a few minutes for that glorious 700 mile drive back home. The trip has been great, but I can tell the weather won’t be great as I roll back toward home. I’m running out the door, so no detailed forecast today. However, it looks like 2-4 more inches of rain could fall by tomorrow morning, so a flash flood watch has been issued for most of Central Louisiana. Look for the worst of this system to be from late afternoon through early tomorrow morning. Some folks south and west of town could pick up more than 6 inches of rain. In addition to what we’ve seen in past weeks, this could cause some fairly significant flooding problems. There is another large storm system on tap for late this week. We just can’t break this pattern! Welcome to an El Nino fall/winter.

Remember The Clouds?

October 21, 2009

They’re back. Moisture streaming ahead of former hurricane Rick will combine with a fairly strong storm system to bring widespread rain to the area starting later today.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy and a bit more humid with a 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s with southeasterly wind around 8-16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Rain and thunderstorms will become widespread. Lows will be near 70.

Thursday: Heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s.

Thursday Night: Rain should end toward morning. Lows will be in the middle to upper 50s. Total rainfall accumulations will range from 1-4 inches with isolated totals over 5 inches.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday through Tuesday: Things look mostly dry so I’ll leave rain chances below 20% throughout the period. Temperatures will actually be close to normal with highs rising from the lower 70s to the upper 70s. Lows will rise from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

Beyond lthis part of the forecast there are at least a few indications of a significant storm system late next week. Plenty could change before then, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Another Splendid Start

October 20, 2009

It looks like this will be our last morning in the 40s for a while. A warmer southerly flow will return to the area and quickly bring back clouds, some humidity, and eventually a lot of rain. In fact, flood watches have already been hoisted around Dallas for this heavy rain. I’m thinking 1-3 inches will be widespread by the time this rain rolls out. The break was nice while it lasted!

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s with southeasterly wind around 5-15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and warmer. Lows will be in the middle to upper 50s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a 60% chance for rain and thunderstorms. Lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

Thursday: Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s.

Friday through Monday: Rain will end early on Friday and be followed by another period of dry weather. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout the period with lows in the upper 50s Friday morning, and upper 40s to near 50 for the rest of the forecast period.

Workweek Forecast

October 19, 2009

It looks like a couple more nice days before a fairly strong storm system brings us another round of heavy rain. The good news is, we shouldn’t get too terribly warm before this system moves in. Another interesting note is that several models are trying to develop a tropical system over the western Caribbean in the next week. I’m not terribly worried about it for us due to unfavorable upper level wind this far north. It should be interesting to watch regardless.

Monday: Mostly sunny and gorgeous once again. Highs will be in the lower 70s with southeasterly wind around 5-15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear and cool. Lows will be in the middle 40s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. Highs will be in the middle 70s.

Tuesday Night: Becoming mostly cloudy and much warmer. Lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and more humid with a 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Highs will be in the upper 70s.

Thursday through Sunday: Rain and thunderstorms are likely Thursday and Friday. I’ll go with a 70% chance Thursday and a 50% chance Friday. Saturday and Sunday should be dry. High temperatures will fall between 70-75 for the most part, with some areas staying in the 60s on Friday due to clouds and/or rain. Lows will start out in the upper 60s Thursday morning, then fall to the upper 50s Friday morning, and back to the upper 40s for the weekend.

Finally Fall

October 18, 2009

As I write this we are near 40 degrees outside. I almost want to throw a few logs in the fireplace this morning! Fall weather is officially here, and it looks like it is making a play to stick around for a while.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and still quite nice. Highs will be in the middle 60s with northeasterly wind around 5-10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. Highs will be in the lower 70s.

Monday Night: Mostly clear and comfortable. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and a little warmer. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s.

Wednesday through Saturday: A large storm system will pass to our north but will bring us some rainfall. I think Wednesday will stay dry, but Thursday brings a 50-60% chance for storms. I’ll keep a 30% chance for rain in on Friday and dry things out for Saturday. Temperatures stay well below where they were last week. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday and will fall back into the upper 60s to near 70 for Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in the upper 50s Wednesday, the middle 60s Thursday, and back in the 50-55 degree range for Friday and Saturday morning.

Basically, nothing out of the ordinary is in the cards over the next 6-7 days, though temperatures will finally be at levels more fitting of this time of year. Enjoy the lack of heat!

And Here It Is

October 16, 2009

Cooler weather is here, and it’s here to stay! Even as things warm up next week it won’t be back to the levels we saw this week. Look for an extended peek at fall over the next several days as cool air continues to be reinforced from the north.

Friday: Partly sunny and cooler. Highs will be near 70 with northerly wind around 10-20 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear and chilly. Lows will be in the middle to upper 40s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and a bit cooler. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold! Lows will be in the lower to middle 40s.

Sunday: Mostly clear and still quite nice. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s.

Monday through Thursday: A bit warmer, but still seasonally cool. Highs will range from the near 70 on Monday to the upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will start in the lower to middle 40s Monday and rise to near 50 Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday morning we will start out around 60. Rain chances are out of the forecast Monday and Tuesday and return to the 30-40% range for Wednesday and Thursday.

Enjoy this gorgeous weekend! Make sure to open up the windows.