The Tropics Aren’t Done Yet!

August 30, 2009

Good Sunday morning everyone! I’m tired. I don’t know why, but Lily decided to wake daddy up today, and she decided the earlier the better. It must be the morning of early surprises, because the National Hurricane Center has really started to key in on an area about 950 miles east of the Lesser Antilles for some possible tropical development. This system does look much better than it did 24 hours ago and could be primed to pop over the next two days or so. Track and intensity models are all over the place. Some pull this system north while some bend it back toward the Caribbean. Some make this a hurricane in 3-4 days while others dissipate it totally in the next 24 hours. Right now I think it will develop, but the track is not much more than an educated guess. I’ll say whatever it is will likely end up somewhere around or just north of Puerto Rico in 4-5 days. It’s about as vague as I can be I guess, but this thing is tricky at best when it comes to forecasting. There is a fairly significant mid level ridge to the north of it right now, and that should continue to shove this system toward the west or west northwest over the next few days. We’ll revisit this one tomorrow and hopefully have a little better idea of what to expect. I doubt we’ll have a really good handle on this one for several days.

Here’s your work week forecast!

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance for thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s with northerly wind around 5-15 mph. Some storm could produce strong wind gusts.

Sunday Night: Decreasing clouds and a bit cooler. Lows will be in the middle 60s.

Monday: Mostly sunny and very nice. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s with low humidity!

Monday Night: Clear and a bit cooler. Lows will be near 60.

Tuesday: Mostly clear and nice once again. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with low humidity.

Wednesday through Saturday: It looks mostly dry and nice through the week. Highs will range from 89-92 with comfortable humidity levels. Lows will be in the 60-65 range throughout the period as well. The only small chance for rain will come toward the weekend, but at this point I’m going to leave the forecast fairly dry.

Nick

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