Gulf System Update

August 16, 2009

I’ll have a full update in the morning on all three storms, but figured I’d put this on about the southeastern Gulf of Mexico system. It appears to be organizing this evening, and I’m upping my chances of devleopment from 15-20% to 40-50%. That’s a pretty steep jump, but things are progressing nicely with this system over the last 12 hours. It’s been tagged an “investigation” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and models show potential intensification of the disturbance over the next 2 days. The first track guidance I’m seeing brings this system into an area similar to Gustav, just west of New Orleans. The unsettling thing is that conditions are favorable for development, and the water is super warm in the Gulf. Right now 86-90 degree sea surface temperatures are common. As a frame of reference 80 degrees is considered the benchmark for tropical systems to be able to strengthen. I’m posting this update just so you guys won’t be caught completely off guard if you wake up in the morning and see Claudette rolling this way. At this point I still just think it will be a rain maker for us, and I’m not completely sold on development. That being said, things look like they are trying to come together. Tomorrow morning will bring a new set of data and a fresh view of how this system is developing. I’ll have a more in depth update on all three systems tomorrow. Don’t worry about this thing at this point. I’d say and Humberto like impact would be a worst case scenario, and we’d need all the chips to fall into place for that to happen. Obviously, I’ll be watching.

Nick

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