Weekend Forecast and Tropical Update

August 14, 2009

We are 2 1/2 months into the season and still don’t have a named tropical system to show for in the Atlantic basin.  It’s been close, but no cigar so far.  Tropical depression # 2 has petered out over the open Atlantic.  There is a slight chance for regeneration of this system, but at this point, that system is my smallest concern. 

System # 2 which is the disturbance draped from the eastern Bahamas through Hispaniola is still very disorganized.  It’s basically a tropical wave travelling alongside an upper level low which is providing some storms, but unfavorable conditions for tropical development.  I think this system still has a small chance at development over the Gulf from Saturday through Sunday, but anything that develops should be slow evolving and thus weak due to the fact that whatever it is will be moving inland by Sunday night or Monday.  This system should bring us a good dose of afternoon storms at the very least.

System #3 is taking the lead in the interest department.  It is the most organized at this point and by far has the best chance at developing.  In fact, at this point I’d say that by Saturday morning we’ll have at least a depression and maybe a storm out in the eastern Atlantic.  This wave is now about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands, and is moving westward at a pretty good clip.  This system per all model guidance should become a hurricane over the central Atlantic and could be a significant one.  It’s still 9-12 days away from any U.S impact if that even becomes an issue at all.  Many times storms that form this far out tend to recurve away from the U.S, but there are some models that bring this thing all the way across toward the southeast.  Here is one models take on possible tracks.  Track guidance

This has some scary scenarios, but is in what we call “model fantasyland” time wise.  It’s tough to forecast an area of landfall 5 days out, much less 9-12 days out on a storm that hasn’t even developed.  I’m basically showing this so in 4 days I can come on and show you how much has changed.  I’ll be watching this carefully.  My concern will start to raise if this storm increases forward speed in the next few days.  That would help it sneak under the ridge with little pull to the north from passing disturbances.  Right now, I’m not worried at all, just watching.  Now for your forecast!

 

Friday:  Mostly sunny and hot.   Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s, with easterly wind around 5-10 mph.

Friday Night:  Mostly clear and pretty nice!  Lows will be near 70.

Saturday:  Partly sunny with a couple of showers possible as you head southeast of Alexandria.  Highs will be in the middle 90s.

Saturday Night:  Partly cloudy and a bit more humid.  Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

Sunday:  Partly cloudy with a 40% chance for thunderstorms late.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.

Monday and Tuesday:  Rain coverage will be around 50-60% as the tropical wave passes through.  Some heavy showers will be possible, and highs will be held to around 88-91, with lows in the middle 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday:  Rain chances will fall back to around 30%.  Highs will bounce back into the middle 90s, and lows will stick up in the mid 70s.  Around this time frame we’ll have a great idea what the future Ana/Bill might do.  Until then, it’s a whole lotta guessin. 

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Nick

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