Dry For Now, But The Tropics Are Awakening

August 13, 2009

Watching things develop in the tropics can be tedious and quite time consuming.  There are so many flare ups and close calls before something is generally even called a depression.  Right now, the one system of the three I’m watching that actually has reached that lofty status is the one I’m watching the least.  T.D. # 2 is weak at best, and weakening at present time.  The two other systems appear to be at least trying to do something, though they aren’t in a big hurry to do so. 

The first of these systems is just about 24 hours off the West African coast.  It is moving westward and is looking like a pretty solid be to develop, and most likely become Tropical Storm Ana by the weekend.  This storm is in a fairly favorable region for development, and climatologically in a good region to develop in mid August.  When a storm is this far out, it typically tries to recurve out into the Atlantic, but several models keep this eventual storm on a westerly track for the next five days.  There are still lots of variables that could cause this storm to do several different things, but it’s certainly something to watch.

The second of these systems is a bit more pressing concern, but isn’t something I’m freaking out about.  It’s located near the Lesser Antilles, but is moving rather quickly toward the west northwest.  This system is a whole heap a nuthin right now, but could try to gather strength as it enters a more favorable area for development this weekend.  As that happens, this wave will be moving into the north central Gulf of Mexico, so it will certainly bear watching for us.  This system doesn’t look like it will develop before then, so Saturday should be a rather telling day for this system.  In my experience, it takes things time once conditions become favorable for development, so I’m leaning toward just a strong tropical wave with increased rain chances Sunday and Monday.  However, we’ve had recent storms like Humberto which took no time at all to develop.  It can happen for sure, but at this point I’d say the worst case scenario for this system would be a tropical storm.  I’m watching this one obsessively even though it probably won’t do much. 

Now your regular old forecast……

Thursday:  Partly sunny and hot.  Highs will be in the middle 90s, with northeasterly wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night:  Mostly clear with a low near 70.

Friday:  Partly sunny and toasty once again.  Highs will be in the middle 90s.

Friday Night:  Mostly clear with a low near 70.

Saturday:  Partly sunny with a high in the lower to middle 90s.

Sunday and Monday:  Becoming mostly cloudy with a 40-50% chance for thunderstorms as the tropical wave approaches.  Highs will be around 90, and for now I’ll say no gusty winds or anything like that.  Just good old fashioned off and on thunderstorms.  This is the time frame that could see some changes in the forecast as we see what the tropical wave wants to do.

Tuesday and Wednesday:  There will be scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon with highs returning to seasonal normals in the lower to middle 90s.


One Response to “Dry For Now, But The Tropics Are Awakening”

  1. Momma Sharon said

    If you see that a hurricane is coming, head on out to good old hurricane free St. Louis!!!

    Love, Mom

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