Quick Forecast Update

July 25, 2009

We already have a few storms in the area near Natchitoches today and it looks like the rain could really start to crank up on Sunday. Things are looking wetter and wetter with each passing model run. 2-3 inches of rain likely on average from Sunday through Thursday with totals possible touching 5 inches north of Alexandria. This is awesome since we are officially in a moderate drought per the United States drought monitor. Check it out at http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html. Click on Louisiana once to zoom in, and twice to get the state view. Happy rain collecting!

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2 Responses to “Quick Forecast Update”

  1. Roger Steortz cec/tech said

    Rain chances on the models

    What do you mean by this and where are the models?
    I look at 3 to 4 weather sites and they all differ a little to a lot. I mean some will say like 30 % chance of rain and another might say 60% and so on. Why do they differ? Do they not all gether weather info from the same sources?

    Just a few thoughts. And oh, it was nice to finally meet you in person at cec Friday. Also your family.

    Roger

  2. It can get pretty goofy when trying to read all that stuff, but models in their most simplified form can be found here….. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/products/bullform.all.htm

    Scroll down to Louisiana, check the box by your city, scroll to the bottom of the page and click “submit query” The precipitation chances are shown in the row marked on the left by either P06, P12, or P24. That would be precipitation chances for 6, 12, or 24 hours. That certainly doesn’t tell the whole story, and can change wildly every 6 hours. Different forecasts just come from different minds interpreting quickly changing data in different ways. With Tom and Sarah I would try to blend my forecast with theirs. If it looked like an 80% chance for rain three days out, but we had been going with 40%, I would up the chances slowly in case they waffled back. We didn’t want to go from 40% to 80%, and then have to revert back to 40% the next day. If we upped it to 50 or 60% it wasn’t as big a deal to drop things back down.

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