Forecast and More

July 25, 2009

Alright, so I haven’t beaten the door down at KALB and begged for my job back. In fact Lily just asked me if we could go back to the station today. I told her that the reason she was there yesterday was due to the fact that it was my last day. I told her I was working at home now so I could play with her more. Without missing a beat she said “then I think we should go jump on the trampoline”. I love it! So before I go to the trampoline I wanted to update the forecast for the weekend and beyond. Oh, one more thing. I think the way I’ll do this is sort of how the national weather service does things. I’ll post a forecast discussion stating how I got to my conclusions, then I’ll break things down day by day. Feel free to ask questions via the comments section if there’s something that you need to know. I’ll try to keep up with that unless I start getting 50 a day. If you have an outdoor wedding in three days and there is a 40% chance for thunderstorms that afternoon, feel free to ask for some specifics.

Forecast discussion: Things are fairly clear cut in the beginning. There isn’t a whole lot of moisture to work with, and with our high July sun angle we’ll see temperatures jump into the mid 90s. Our precipitable water, which is the amount of water available from top to bottom through the atmosphere is at about 1.3 inches today. That’s very low for this time of year. Tomorrow that number jumps to near 2.0 inches, and stays between 1.9-2.2 inches through the rest of next week. That means more drought busting rain is on the way!

Text forecast:

Saturday: Partly sunny, hot, and seasonally humid. Highs will be from 95-98, with the heat index hitting 101-103 this afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a low in the lower 70s.

Sunday: Variable cloudy with a 30% chance for afternoon thunderstorms as moisture begins to filter back into the area. Highs will be around 92-95.

Sunday Night: There is a 20% chance for some overnight thunderstorms. I think most of any rain will end in the evening, but there’s a shot for a late night shower or storms. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Thursday: Rain chances on the models range from 57-72% on these days. Yes the models do get that specific on their rain chances. I think each day will see rain coverage on the order of 50-70% with the best chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. All this cloud cover and rain will hold highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. I think average rain totals from Monday through Thursday will be 1-2 inches with isolated totals over 4 inches. Enjoy the rain while it lasts!

Nick

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